Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I have a question. A Christian/Creationist friend of mine is wanting me to explain how it could be that certain parts of nature work in such harmony when each life form had to evolve at just the right timing. He gives as an example the bees and the flowers. Each had to evolve separately, yet each was depending on the other in order to exist. I may not be explaining this correctly, as I am, unfortunately, technologically and scientifically challenged. But nonetheless, I see where this question could pose a dilema. My guess is that, given billions of years, the right combination just happened to take place. Who knows how many times the combination was close...but not close enough to sustain the whole system. |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | The answer
is co-evolution.
Insects have been around for at least 300 million years, while flowering plants have only been around since the early Cretaceous, about 140 million years ago. So it is clear that many insects could get by without needing flowering plants. On the other hand, bees may have evolved about 10 million years after the first simple flowers, so flowers did not need bees at first. We don't know for sure; the first Cretaceous bee fossil was found only in 1988. The bennettitaleans (a class of plants that may have been the origin of modern flowering plants), for example, may have been pollinated by beetles. Once there were both bees and flowers, both evolved in response to the other. Bees found flowers a food source, while flowers hit on the strategy of using bees to pollinate themselves. Eventually these strategies replaced previous strategies, resulting in a system that appears "in harmony". In contrast to the bogus claims of creationists such as Michael Behe, such complex interacting systems can easily evolve, and in fact we see precisely this sort of co-evolution in computer simulations. Furthermore, it is discussed in any good textbook on evolutionary biology. You might suggest to your friend that he/she could benefit from a college biology course! |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I would like to thank you for publishing the Introduction to Evolutionary Biology on the net. I found it most useful and informative. It was your site that helped me to decide on studing biology at University. Thank you Christine |
Feedback Letter | |
Comment: | I was wondering if you had anything on snake/lizard evolution? |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | Not
specifically, although snake and lizard evolution is
mentioned in a few of places in the Archive. See:
Here a couple of off-site references:
Try searching with an Internet search engine to find more responses. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | It has been mentioned that evolution is a fact as is an apple falling. I understand how you can demonstrate that an apple falls, thus being a fact. What I need help on understanding how evolution over millions of years can be called a fact, since you can't demonstrate actual evolution over millions of years. I understand that there is evidence that shows that evolution occurred. I wish someone would explain EXACTLY how one comes to the fact that it took millions of years, since there is no measuring tool that can accurately measure such a large span of time. If anyone can supply me with some explanations I would be very appreciative. |
Response | |
From: | Chris Stassen |
Author of: | Isochron Dating |
Response: | An apple
falling is only an observation of micro-gravitation.
It is macro-gravitation that cannot be, due to
scale, directly experienced. It is "merely" a clear and
logical inference from a wide range of data (some of which
is "micro-gravitation," some of which is indirect). We call
it a "fact" that Pluto orbits the Sun as a result of the
Sun's gravitational attraction. Even though Pluto's
existence has been known for only a tiny fraction of one
orbit (so we haven't watched a full orbit), and nobody has
ever been to Pluto to observe it directly.
Also, there are accurate means to measure large spans of time, and we already have some detailed "explanations" of these on this site. See for example my Isochron Dating FAQ. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | About the speed of light: NEVER SAY NEVER! In fact, you can almost always lay a bet on it. Scientific truth is like jello. Only the politicians, media and small minds imagine it to be like concrete. Do'Ha' bachHa'. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | Would any of you evolutionists claim the following could develop by a random chance process....A stroll on the beach reveals the following.... Writing in the sand; an empty soda can; a piece of paper; a bottle cap; a broken piece of glass; sunglasses; and an empty suntan lotion bottle. Can any of these things repair themselves when damaged? Can any of these things make copies of themselves? You didn't see any of these being made yet(I hope)you know they are a product of intelligent design. Yet you look at all the living things on this earth say they arose by accident? Okay...so let me get this straight....Nobody took nothing and made everything? But, since I believe in God and a literal Genesis (with no room for evolution anywhere) I'm the idiot? Romans 1:20 (paraphrased) The Creation is proof of the Creator so we are without excuse! In Christ, Doug Patch |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | For the
millionth time, No, life did not arise by accident.
Evolution is not pure chance. To erect a strawman of
evolution that omits natural selection is a form of bearing
false witness.
The items that you mention all look man-made. I come to that conclusion because I have read descriptions of the manufacturing processes of soda cans, sunglasses, and plastic bottles; I myself have seen glass bottles and paper being made; and, of course, I have made writing myself. None of this applies to any life form. As you yourself note, life does not look like designed things, because life can repair itself and reproduce. Furthermore, life is much more complex than design, and life forms show a pattern of relative similarity that is nothing like we expect or observe from design. The logical conclusion is that life is not designed. Besides, if God cares for life, He would be stupid not to make life that evolves. I'll leave your last question unanswered. But I will comment that God as you represent Him is a god that I find repulsive. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | true beleiver |
Comment: | You idiots, how could you beleive that the earth is round? I have seen it with my own eyes, it is FLAT,FLAT Isay!!!!!! You |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | Thank you for one of the most intelligent responses we have had to our page about the flat earth. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I have a question: are humans apes? I'm on an AOL message board debating creationism v. evolution where a number of the latter group insist that "humans are apes." The way I heard it, humans and apes were related but were not the same animal (humans are in family hominidae, apes in pongidae and hylobatidae). Does the superfamily hominoidea mean "apes" or "apes and humans?" Please let me know. |
Responses | |
From: | |
Author of: | Evolution and Philosophy |
Response: | There are
two competing philosophies of classification in biology.
The older one tends to retain the Linnaean system of
ranking things in families, orders, and variants of these,
while the newer one - the cladist philosophy - organises
them according to evolutionary order and includes all
descendents of a single taxon (a group in the
classification; it might be a species or it might be a
larger group) in a group. Since there are many splitting
events on the evolutionary tree, there are no set ranks in
cladistic classification.
With this bit of background, the answer to your question is - it depends. If you are taking the older Linnaean approach, then humans and apes are in different taxa, and Hominoidea is the group above them both that includes them both - Classification of Humankind is a site that gives this information. But if you take the cladistic view, then humans are apes, because if you remove humans out of that branch of the tree (that "clade"), what remains is an incomplete branch - see this site for a figure showing this. I hope this helps. Humans are, according to cladistic principles, in the same group as chimpanzees (hence Jared Diamond's book The third chimpanzee), and gorillas, and organutans and so on. We are not in the same clades as monkeys, lemurs and so on, although all of those, and the apes and us are in the clade known as Primates. But on traditional classification principles (which are broadly a matter of subjective judgment and traditional names) we are not apes. I prefer the cladistic approach. |
From: | |
Response: | While not
disagreeing with the fact that most anthropologists today
would classify "apes" and humans together in the same
Family or Superfamily, I took issue with John's
characterization of the relationship between cladistic
methodology and the Linnaean hierarchy. I told him this
through a personal e-mail and he invited me to make some
comments on this here.
First I am personally unaware of a "Linnaean philosophy" other than the opinion held by many (if not most) biologists that the Linnaean hierarchy is a useful tool for organizing the plant and animal world. Secondly I am unaware of any sort of "Linnaean rule" or standard "Linnaean methodology" that requires that "apes" and humans be placed in separate Families etc. Earlier anthropologists had, for a number of reasons, traditionally done this, but this had nothing to do with the Linnaean hierarchy. Finally I am unaware of any innate conflict between the use of cladistic methods and the Linnaean hierarchy. In fact my understanding is that one uses cladistics to decide where to place an organism into the Linnaean hierarchy. There is a group of cladists who argue that the Linnaean hierarchy is outdated and should be replaced with a new system based directly on cladistics known as the "PhyloCode" (many of them make similar sorts of comments to those John made here), however their claims both about the supposed problems with the Linnaean hierarchy and that they have a superior replacement, are still a matter of serious debate amongst systematists. See the following links for information on this debate: The PhyloCode home page. Stems, nodes, crown clades, and rank-free lists: is Linnaeus dead? by Michael J. Benton The Phylocode is poorly reasoned and fatally flawed, and the current codes of nomenclature are not. by K. C. Nixon The "Phylocode" - A Commentary by Scott A. Redhead Further comments on the "PhyloCode" by Larissa Vasilyeva "Phylocode debate -- Mike Lee (for); Gary Nelson (against)" From Cladograms to Classifications: The Road to DePhylocode by Norman I. Platnick Much more both pro and con can be found on the Web, simply put PhyloCode into Google or your favorite Internet search-engine. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | Chapter 6,
"Implications of a Flood," of your Noah's Ark FAQ at:
needs an update. It says, "Why is there no evidence of a flood in ice core series? Ice cores from Greenland have been dated back more than 40,000 years by counting annual layers. [Johnsen et al, 1992,; Alley et al, 1993]" A year after you published your second edition, Petit, Et al. published a 420,000-year ice core series from Vostok, Antarctica in Nature 399, 429 - 436 (1999.) Currently, the article resides on the Internet, see: Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica Old Noah gets more fantastic as science advances. --- -- --- -- Roger Coppock |
Response | |
From: | |
Author of: | Problems with a Global Flood, 2nd edition |
Response: | Thank you for the link. In fairness to Noah, however, I don't think 420,000 annual layers were counted. From what I remember of my research on that FAQ, when you get too deep, the annual layers thin out too much to distinguish directly. Other methods are then used, such as radiometric dating of lead isotopes. However, you are correct that annual layers now go back more than 40,000 years. A web page on the GISP2 Ice Core (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) says, "Recently annual layer counts based on visual stratigraphy and solid laser light scattering have been extended back to ~110 kyr B.P." (That's ~110,000 years back.) |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | Suppose there ever was a transitional species, where would this tranistional species get his wife? who and what would he mate with to keep his species alive? This is the biggest problem that I discovered while studing evolution. I cant get a straight answer out of anybody. |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | Species are formed as populations, and so there is never a single organism without a mate - it is the population which is transitional between one species and another. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I am a creationist myself and came to this site hoping to find an equal opportunity, scientific approach. Unfourtunately, there was no equality at all. While I am not questioning the scientific basis for your claims, why did you insist on only giving evolution's claims positive attention? Wouldn't it reflect better on the website as a whole to give true, unbiased representation of both sides and let readers decide for themselves? |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | No, it
wouldn't. From the Welcome
page:
This site presents the mainstream scientific position on evolution. Science doesn't work by majority vote or by polling the public. The scientific case for creationism was made, and rejected, over a century ago. Because we do not want to be accused of misrepresenting creationist views--and there are multiple, conflicting views--the archive provides, where appropriate, links to creationist sites so that readers can decide for themselves. The archive also provides a long list of links to other sites that readers can peruse at their leisure. To my knowledge, no creationist site does the same. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | What is the status of Stw 573? This is the nearly complete australopithecus fossil that was found at Sterkfontein about 5 years ago. I have not heard anything further on it for some time. Is it still being excavated? If so, when will the excavation and reconstruction be finished? I would love to see this fossil skeleton placed next to that of the Turkana boy. The creationists would have a hard time with that pair. |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | Jim Foley has it covered but I cannot find anything more recent than he lists, even on PubMed. |
Feedback Letter | |
Comment: | Saying that teaching Creationism is unconstitutional is obsured. What should be done is have teachers teach both both the sciences, Creation and Evolution. Then let the students decide for themselves on what they want to beleive. |
Response | |
From: | |
Author of: | What is Creationism? |
Response: | There is no
science of Creation.
However, I agree with your principle--that a couple dozen of the various versions of Creationism from different cultures and religions should be taught in social studies classes. (It wouldn't be fair to teach only one creationism when there are hundreds of creation versions out there.) Then let the students decide for themselves what they want to beleive. I can't imagine any Creationist going along with that plan, though. |
Feedback Letter | |
Comment: | I only have positive feedback. Your site has greatly assisted me in many entertaining debates. I am from Glen Rose, Texas and in our school district, they often teach both evolution and creation. Good ol' Carl Baugh came to speak to our class about the SINGLE foot print (that doesn't really look like one) of a human and the "hammer" that "prove" man and dinosuar coexisted. did you hear about the glow in the dark dinos still living today in New Zealand? It was a riot. Anywho, I was glad to finally read what "qualification" Baugh actually claims. TeeHee...again, your site was a great help and i love the format. It's a trip livin in the town of Carl Baugh's Creation Evidence trailer...i mean museum... |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | In response
to John Wilkins, re: my feedback regarding the definition
of tautology April
2002 Feedback)
JW: Yes, it's very uninformative. [Hint: a tautology is an uninformative statement that defines one thing in terms of itself. Tautologies that are useful are called truisms :-)] PH: Ahh, yes I did get that little joke. But I could see a person with not clue how to define tautology, such as Kent Hovind, it may present some difficulties. :) |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I say to all who see this repent and be baptized everyone of you in the name of Jesus Christ for the remission of sins and you shall recieve the HOLY Ghost my name is Lee Butler I Live in Aberdeen SOUTH DAKOTA any quistions please send me a letter |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | This is a great site! Looking at all of the evidence for evolution leads me to conclude that new species will arise to take the place of those becoming extinct. I am afraid I had bought into the worrywart "extinction is forever" propaganda. Now that I understand that decent with modification is constantly giving rise to new species, I see that the earth's beautiful menagerie is indeed self-sustaining through the natural force of evolution. We loose species, but then gain new ones as natural forces allow. The next time I read one of those articles decrying this year's loss of plant and animal species, I'm going to point out "the other side of the equation" - the creation of new species through evolution. Thanks!!! |
Response | |
From: | |
Author of: | Five Major Misconceptions about Evolution |
Response: |
Unfortunately, it's not that simple. The two greatest
causes of extinction are habitat degradation and introduced
pests. In both cases, we cannot expect biodiversity to
return to its previous levels -- even with long-term
evolution -- until the original problem is reversed, and
maybe not even then.
Habitat degradation is a problem because the degraded habitat (usually) simply doesn't support as many species as the original. To take an extreme but still common example, a pasture doesn't support nearly as many species as a tropical rain forest. The biodiversity lost when the rain forest is cleared for pasture cannot re-evolve until the pasture becomes rain forest again. With introduced species, biodiversity caused by regional isolation is wiped out. In the long term, the introduced species may speciate, but the new species will always be more closely related to each other than to the species that were lost. The number of species may end up the same in the long run, but the diversity among those species will be less than now. And, of course (as I suspect you already know), any appreciable evolution of new species will take thousands of years. Many generations of our children will suffer the lack of the extinct species in the meantime. And when a species goes extinct, that species is gone forever. Furthermore, habitat degradation and introduced pests are serious problems in themselves, costing many billions of dollars per year directly. You can help with both the economic problems and the extinction problems by encouraging better agricultural inspection and land use policies that consider long-term effects. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | Isila Lopez-Baker |
Comment: | I have watched Dr. Hovind's 7series seminar and have read enough derogitory information to his beliefs. From this I have concluded for myself that he is genuine in his beliefs and has proved them to me beyond a shadow of a doubt. He offers undeniable facts and links them with the "myths" of the Bible. Infact, I tell everyone I meet about him and his ministry. I have made coppies of his tapes and given them to over ten people who have carried on the chain. I will raise my children on my newfound beliefs because I can't seem to do enough research proving his accuracy on the history of the earth. It is a comfort to finally know the truth and to know that my voice is finally being heard because of the radical nature of this system. If you want to make a sentence in a paragraph stand out you highlight it in yellow or orange. Dr. Hovind has simply shown me how to attack the devil by highlighting my presentation of scripture. Thank God for Dr.Kent Hovind. I know I do. You, sir, truely are an inspiration and it is a wonderful thing to see you fulfilling your purpose. I hope that I have been able to give you some courage and inspiration if you needed it. I love you. Your sister in Christ, Isila |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | I have
observed "Dr" Kent Hovind for many years. I say without a
moment's hesitation that no one with any knowledge of the
science involved in the relevant fields will find him
anything but a fraud. He is an embarrassment even to his
fellow creationists, mostly due to his continued use of
arguments that more reputable and better educated
creationists debunked long ago. A good example of this is a
recent article posted by the creationist organization
Answers in Genesis. AIG put out a list of arguments that
have been discredited and retracted by creationists around
the world, and urged that creationists not use these
arguments because it only undermines the credibility of
creationism. Needless to say, many of those discredited
arguments are in Kent Hovind's seminar, and they remain
there despite the admonishment of his fellow creationists
for continuing to use them. For example, he continues to
argue that the lack of dust on the moon proves that the
earth is only a few thousand years old, despite the fact
that creationists like Andrew Snelling debunked the
argument a decade ago. He continues to use the Paluxy
"mantracks" as a proof that man and dinosaurs lived
simultaneously, again despite the fact that his fellow
creationists themselves abandoned this claim many years ago
because the evidence is strongly against it. He continues
to use material from Ron Wyatt, who was as pure a conman as
I have ever encountered, and whose work has been condemned
by creationist organizations around the world. Why does he
continue to use discredited arguments? Well, to be blunt, I
think he does it for two reasons. First, because he knows
that his audience is not knowledgable enough to realize
that he's wrong. Second, because I just don't think Kent
Hovind cares much about the truth. As long as a claim
supports his position, no matter how absurd or
unsupportable that claim is, he will continue to use it.
And even the criticism of his fellow creationists will not
convince him otherwise.
The link to AIG's article criticizing Hovind's lack of honesty is found at Maintaining Creationist Integrity: A response to Kent Hovind |
Feedback Letter | |
Comment: | Is it true Darwin was a racist? |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | No it is
not. The last remaining scientific creationist, during
Darwin's day, Louis Agassiz was definitely a racist, but
Darwin, and his family, had opposed slavery well before
Darwin developed the theory of evolution, adopting the
slogan "Am I [the slave} not a Man and a Brother?" and this
did not change after he developed the theories for which he
is famous.
One thing that has led many to suppose Darwin was a racist is that he was definitely a Eurocentrist. He, like many of his contemporaries, took it as an article of faith that the British, and more specifically the English, civilisation was the very pinnacle of civilisation, and that the indigenous peoples of the colonised world were "savages". In modern terms, this is "culturist", not racist. However, since the very notion of "race" in the human species is culturally defined, to that extent, and that extent only, one might call Darwin racist. In so doing, one would have to call everyone who thinks their society is better than others to be racist. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | A wonderful site made even better by the feedback! It is a shame so many Christians are so rabid about creation. I live in Japan and there is none of this interference with the teaching of science in the schools (though there used to be with the whole schema surrounding the Emperor up to 1945). Creation is a nice story, but the rest of the world is also out there with a plethora of alternate creation theories. The sad thing is, this rabid defense of the biblical story comes off very similar to the rabid defense of fundamentalist Islamic precepts. When I am approached by Japanese about the power of these religious groups to include their version of life into the schools, I am embarrassed. Then again, people like you are around calling for a sane discussion of the problem and I feel a little bit better. Volunteers, keep up your clear headed responses. (BTW, Auckland may be in NZ, but my Kiwi associate did not realize that he could reach South America without going by down by the South Pole!) |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I'm a bit
confused about species. At school we were told that a
species can generally be identified from another, similar
life form if, when the two mate, they produce a sterile
offspring.
But recently I learned that different plant species can actually produce hybrids, and that sometimes, in really rare circumstances those hybrids can actually be fertile! Apparently we don't often see this because hybrids occur (obviously) right in the middle of overlaping species distributions, and the fertile ones quite often just hybridise again with one or the other parent species and it becomes diluted?? So is this the way that new species could come about? If so what would the individual 'new' species mate with to reproduce? Or do these fertile hybrids actually occur more than one at a time in the same area?? I'm sorry if I'm not making myself clear but I'm a bit puzzled by all this and my teacher doesn't know the answer and I don't know where to start looking. I read up a uni textbook on biology but it didn't really go into much detail. Any help you could give me would be appreciated. Sincerely Mel |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: | Ah, yes.
This is more than just a problem of definition. And it does
also cause problems for biologists, conservationists, and
many others. What, if anything, is a species? It's known as
"the species problem", although there are quite a number of
species problems.
There is a long answer. You can find it discussed in the listed books and references, but if you want a shorter answer, here it is: Because species evolve many different ways of being isolated from each other, and because species are sometimes only partially isolated from each other, there is no simple definition that covers all cases of being species without at the same time also covering things that are not species. Likewise, if we give some criterion like reproductive separation, which is what most of the biology textbooks give, then there are plenty of cases where species are not perfectly isolated or where they can, but do not usually, interbreed. Even then, some organisms - as you note, plants, but also corals, bacteria, and some animals, especially birds and lizards - don't meet the criteria and will happily interbreed across species boundaries. So, we have either got the problem of many different definitions of species (called, for obvious reasons, "pluralism") or we say that only one kind of definition is truly species (like the one in the textbooks) and that all other organisms are not actually organised into species (a view called "monism"). I personally find it odd to say that only a small part of the living world forms species, and so I push for a pluralism; on the grounds that evolution generates diversity and one form of diversity is ways of being species. Anyway, here are the links and the books. The best introduction for the general reader is the one by Schilthuizen - it gives the history and biology in simple terms. Mayden's article is the most comprehensive list of all species concepts in the literature to date: Links
ReferencesEreshefsky, Marc, ed. 1992. The units of evolution: Essays on the nature of species. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Hey, Jody. 2001. Genes, concepts and species: the evolutionary and cognitive causes of the species problem. New York: Oxford University Press. Howard, Daniel J., and Stewart H. Berlocher. 1998. Endless forms: species and speciation. New York: Oxford University Press. Mallet, James. 2001. Species, concepts of. In Encyclopedia of biodiversity, edited by S. A. Levin. New York: Academic Press. Mayden, R. L. 1997. A hierarchy of species concepts: the denoument in the saga of the species problem. In Species: The units of diversity, edited by M. F. Claridge, H. A. Dawah and M. R. Wilson. London: Chapman and Hall. Schilthuizen, Menno. 2001. Frogs, flies, and dandelions: the making of species. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Wilson, Robert A. 1999. Species: new interdisciplinary essays. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. |
Feedback Letter | |
Comment: | Please
disregard the emial I just sent you a few minutes ago. It
was unclear in several places. Also, please do not publish
my name or email address. The revised form of my comment is
as follows:
I am commenting on the article entitled "Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations". In this article, the author attempted to enhance his argument for the probability for abiogenesis by giving an analogy of a coin flip. Of particular concern to me is the statement, "I got 11, 10, 6, 16, 1, 5, and 3 trials before HHHH turned up." He used this argument to try to make the case the number of trials was likely to be less than 16, even though the computed probability of HHHH occuring by chance alone is one out of 16. According to his trials, the average number of trials required was 7.4. Those of us who understand probability theory realize that over the long haul, the average number of trials required will be 16. And sometimes the number of trials required may be much greater than 16 as well as less than 16. While it is true that the average number of trials will be less than 16 more often than it will be greater than 16, this argument is not meaningful to a situations where the number of coin flips is large enough to give rise to a probability of the order of one out 10^40 (about 133 heads in a row). In this case, it will take more than 10^39 trials about 90% of the time to get the required number of heads in sequence. So by reducing the number of permitted trials by only one order of magnitude, one reduces the probability of a successful completion of the required sequence of coin flips to a low probability of about 10%. I respectfully suggest that the author revise this part of his article. When he makes the kind of argument he has made, he undermines his credibility for readers like myself who know more about probability theory than abiogenesis. |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: |
The anonymous critic is right that over the long haul, the average number of trials required to get the HHHH sequence is 16. Musgrave is right that the likelihood is greater that one will obtain an HHHH sequence in less than 16 trials. This is because coin flipping yields a skewed distribution. Let me illustrate... In this case, the expected number of trials before observing a sequence of four heads in coin flipping works out to around 11. More precisely, we can give the formula for the odds that we will not obtain a sequence of four heads over a sequence of trials as follows: Single trials: P(HHHH) = 1/ 2^4 = 1/16 = 0.0625 P(~HHHH) = 1 - (1/2^4) = 0.9375 The odds that one will perform sixteen trials and not observe at least one instance of HHHH are P(~HHHH)^16 = 0.9375^16 = 0.3561 In other words, the proportion of attempts requiring more than sixteen trials is slightly over one-third. But P(~HHHH)^11 = 0.9375^11 = 0.4917, which means that we expect that half the time we will have observed at least one instance of HHHH by the time we have made 11 trials. (Musgrave's expected value of 8 trials obtains if one construes this as search without repetition of probes; I don't think that coin flipping qualifies for the non-repetition of probes.) Musgrave's argument that the number of trials is likely to be less than the simple inverse of the computed probability stands firm, as the anonymous critic admits. A correct view of the relevant probabilities confirms it. Musgrave's further argument is not critically dependent upon the advantage obtained by consideration of the distribution alone, which as the anonymous critic notes does not give even an order of magnitude improvement in expectations. Musgrave develops an argument concerning large numbers of simultaneous, rather than sequential, trials, and it is this argument which shows that even the "orgulously, gobsmackingly unlikely" numbers become tractable given reasonable real-world initial conditions. Musgrave is simply being thorough in demonstrating the general poverty of antievolutionist use of probability arguments. An example of exactly the sort of mistake Musgrave is correcting with regard to the distribution of length of trials can be found in antievolutionist William Dembski's book "No Free Lunch" as note 32 on page 232. Surely correcting this sort of error is a reasonable undertaking, even if the overall effect is relatively minor compared to other factors. Wesley |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | Edward Huxington |
Comment: | You people are so stupid to belive evolutionn. I have myself seen that evolution does not happen, and all of your articles are lies. You probably think that the letter "b" evolved from the letter 'a". Welll i havee news fro yoiu/ man has no right to say that he is frum monkeez and evolution is bad cuz i noww pepole hoo sai i am riit. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I love your website, it has so much information, it's really everything I was hoping to find when I set out to learn about evolution. This site is something that has certainly bettered me as a person in the knowledge I can know dispense when confronted with obvious inacracies by people who believe in creationism. Before I knew they were full of crap, but I had no way of elaborting how and why they were, now I do! Thanks a ton! |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | On the
"answers in genesis"-page I saw an artikel about WWII p-38
fighterplanes being buried under some 75 metres of ice and
snow (see this link: The
lost squadron. According to the author this debunks the
theory that glacial snow needs thousands of years to build
up to just a few meters. My guess is, it wasn't glacial ice
that covered those plains. I'm getting very curious about
the answer to this riddle. Can you help me out (or do you
know some place were I can find the answer)? Thanks.
greeetz, Tommy |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: |
A previous month's feedback contains a response by Mark Isaak with the links you are looking for. Wesley |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | First I
would like to say your site is wonderful. I will always
highly reccomend it for those that wish to explore
evolution. Secondly, I am one of those christians that
agree that evolution is a fact.
Currently I am debating some creationists. I have searched your page but haven't found anything for the following argument and I was hoping you could direct me to it when you have a chance. The argument is that the large layer of granite under the continents could only have been formed within 3 minutes because of various halo effects, etc. If you've heard this, you may e-mail me regarding this. Thank you much! :) |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: |
The reader is likely referring to Robert Gentry's arguments concerning polonium haloes. Fortunately, the archive has FAQs on polonium haloes which critique Gentry's arguments. Wesley |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | troy |
Comment: | Ian Musgrave's article is fantastic. I propose that the scientific community replicate these calculations on a smaller scale and see how long it takes to get some sort of organic molecule to be generated from the inorganic molecules. That will put the final nail in the coffin of the creationists. |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | I am talking
to a creationist of sorts. She isn't a fundie/christian
either. Anyways, she wants this:
"Based on all the information I have come across, I am of the opinion that evolution is impossible. That no creature is capable of adding information to its' genetic code. And by not being able to evolve, then we must have been created in our present form, so there must have been a creator." She read this on your site: July 2001 Post of the Month And her response was: "I went and read that and at one point he says "Modern sequencing strategies allow us to map molecular genetic mutations to actual genes, demonstrating the variability of populations and the power of evolution". All (most?) mutations consist of part of the gene being damaged so it doesn't work properly, or a duplication of an existing piece of gene. Non of these mutations involve the creation of new genetic material. So this is no support for evolution. " Her response to this was: February 1999 Feedback "I found it to contain more than my daily dose of bull sh*t, so I could only skim it (from both sides, I am not a christian and do not believe the bible as fact). They kept talking about their beliefs as though they were proven facts. I am not saying I have all the answers but if they can not defend/talk about their beliefs with out lying I doubt the validity of the idea. " I really don't know where to quick answers for her. Any suggestions? |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: |
I have written an essay on the topic of increasing information in genetics. Another resource which is here on the archive is Edward Max's FAQ on the Evolution of Improved Fitness. The bottom line is that those who claim that "information" cannot be increased in genetics typically either will not specify a quantitative meaning for "information", or confuse and conflate "meaning" with "information". Even antievolutionist William Dembski has indicated that natural selection is capable of fixing modest amounts of new information in the genome (see his 1997 essay on "Intelligent design as a theory of information"). Wesley |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | The "Evolution Hoax Revealed" essay clearly shows your "neutral" "unbiased" "scientific" approach, what you so willingly prefer to emphasize together with the pius statement that evolution is not "anti-religious". What a rubbish ! Shame on your really pseudo-scientific site. Hogwash upon hogwash, served with intellectual dishonesty. You probably would not post something like that mocking Muhammed instead of Christ for fear of being suicide-bombed would you? Change your attitude do not become losers. Will you answer? I seriously wonder. Regards : Gabor |
Response | |
From: | |
Response: |
The Evolution Hoax Revealed!! Breaking News! article is a "Post of the Month". As is noted about Posts of the Month,
PotMs are not meant to characterize an official stance of the Talk.Origins Archive. The t.o. archive volunteers hold a diverse range of opinions and religious beliefs. As satire goes, the article in question is pretty mild. I suggest renting a sense of humor. Wesley |
Feedback Letter | |
From: | |
Comment: | Hi there, I've only recently discovered your site and I just wanted to say what a fantastic resource it is. As someone who is convinced by the confluence of evidence for evolution (both observation of and explanations for), it's amazing what I didn't know, or thought I properly understood. Hopefully now in future debates I will be much better armed with information and understanding. What I also like are the extensive links you have to other resources (specifically those that are 'anti-evolution'). It is important to understand evolution when debating it for sure, but it is equally important (in my opinion at any rate) to have a solid understanding of the views and ideas put forth by the other side in the debate. Not that that is any great revelation of course (a truism would be a more accurate description perhaps ;-) More power to your collective elbows! |